AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the Monday session with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated corn exports at 1.719 MMT for the week of 4/19. That was a jump of 9% from the previous week and 17.18% larger than this week last year. YTD exports are 20.31% lower than the same time last year. Monday afternoon, NASS reported that 5% of the US corn crop was planted as of April 22, just shy of analysts’ expectations at 6-7%. That is well short of the normal pace of 14% complete and last year’s 15 % planted.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 2 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, up 2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.95, up 2 cents

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.04 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures saw losses of 4 to 8 cents in most contracts to start the week on Monday. Soy meal was down $2.30/ton, with front month soy oil 26 points lower. USDA export inspections for soybeans in the week that ended on April 19 were 470,817 MT. That was slightly higher than a week ago but is still 27.33% lower than this week in 2017. Shipments for soybeans YTD are at 42.82 MMT, 12.5% lower than the same time in 2017. This afternoon, the USDA showed that 2% of the US soybean crop was planted as of Sunday. That is even with the average pace, but lags last year’s 5%.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.20 3/4, down 8 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.32 1/4, down 8 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.28 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $371.80, down $2.30,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.04, down $0.26

Wheat

Wheat futures were mixed in the KC contracts on Monday, with CBT down 1 to 3 cents. MPLS was 9 to 12 cents lower. Rainfall amounts were disappointing for the Southern Plains over the weekend, with a number of locations in the 0.2-0.4” category. Some locally heavier amounts were seen. The USDA tallied wheat exports at 619,251 MT during the week of 4/19 in this morning’s Export Inspections report. That was a 22.63% jump from a week ago but was 2% shy of this week last year. The winter wheat crop was estimated at 13% headed as of Sunday, lagging the average at 19%. Condition ratings were steady at 31% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 at 285 on higher excellent ratings. The improvement came mostly in the SRW regions, up 5 points to 363. The HRW state ratings were down 3 points to 267. The spring wheat crop saw a few states progress with planting, but the national pace was UNCH at 3% planted. The typical average is for 25% of the crop to be planted by now.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.61 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.83 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88, down 12 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended the day with most contracts 72.5 cents to $1.275 higher, as April was up $2.375. Strong forward beef sales by packers are getting some attention. Feeder cattle futures were $1.275 to $2.625 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.57 on April 20 at $138.13. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $3.13 at $215.11, with Select boxes $1.59 higher at $201.72. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 117,000 head on Monday. That is 1,000 more than the previous week and up 2,000 head from the same week in 2017. This afternoon’s Cold Storage report put frozen beef stocks on March 31 at 463.971 million pounds. That is just 30,000 pounds below last year and 1.01% larger than February. Combined stocks of poultry and red meat were shown at a March record 2.409 billion pounds.

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $121.725, up $2.375,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $104.875, up $1.150,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.075, up $1.275,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.025, up $1.725

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.600, up $1.275

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.125, up $2.625

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished the Monday session with the nearby contracts $1.125 to $1.95 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 83 cents from the previous day to $56.80 on April 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 4 cents at $67.87 this afternoon. The national base hog weighted average price was 9 cents lower at $57.67 in the Monday afternoon report. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 464,000 head on Monday. That is even with last week and 21,000 head above the same week in 2017. Pork stocks in cold storage on March 31 were reported at 611.048 million pounds this afternoon. That is up just 0.21% from February and 12.02% larger than last year. Stocks of bellies were tallied at 59.21 million pounds, well above last year and 63% larger than February.

May 18 Hogs closed at $68.000, down $1.950,

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $76.375, down $1.175

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $78.900, down $1.125

Cotton

Cotton futures were mostly 3 to 61 points lower, with a few back months higher on Monday. Nearby May was down 228 ahead of delivery notices. The US dollar index also provided pressure, up 614 points. The US cotton crop was estimated at 9% planted on Sunday. Planting progress moved just 1% during the week, and lag last year’s 11% and the average pace at 10%. Wet conditions in the Southeast were an issue. The Cotlook A index was up 25 points from the previous day at 91.95 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 72.16 cents/lb last Thursday, 16 points lower than the previous week.

May 18 Cotton closed at 83.190, down 228 points,

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.120, down 61 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 81.160, down 51 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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