Soybeans Rally on Tuesday Following Weekend Trade Talks and Friendly USDA Data

Austin Schroeder Barchart Mon May 12, 5:03PM CDT
Soybeans emerging in the spring by jcesar2015 via Pixabay

Soybeans closed out the Monday session with contracts rallying 20 to 27 cents.  The cmdtyView Cash Bean price was up 19 3/4 cents to $10.60. Soymeal futures were up $3.90 to 4.90 so far on the day, with Soy Oil futures rallying 126 to 137 points into the close. 

USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, with 24,000 MT for old crop and 96,000 MT for new crop.

Soybean planting was pegged at 48% complete as of Sunday per USDA, which is ahead of the 37% average pace and 34% from the same date last year. The crop was listed at 17% emerged, 6 percentage points faster than average.

The meeting between US and China trade reps saw progress, as an announcement overnight showed a drop in tariffs by 115% for each country for 90 days. The US dropped their rate to 30% on Chinese goods, while China cut theirs to 10% for US goods. 

This morning’s WASDE report, showed old crop stocks down 25 million bushel on an increase to exports to 350 mbu. For new crop, yield was pegged at a trend line average of 52.5 bpa, while acreage was left from the March 31 report at 83.5 million acres. Production totaled 4.34 bbu, near estimates. Old crop ending stocks came in well below the average trade estimate at 295 million bushels, as exports were estimated to total 1.815 bbu.  

WASDE data showed Brazil and Argentina production unchanged at 169 MMT and 49 MMT respectively. The world carryout numbers for 2024/25 soybeans were up 0.71 MMT to 123.18 MMT, with new crop at 124.33 MMT.

Weekly Export Inspections data tallied soybean shipments at 426,077 MT (15.66 mbu) in the week that ended on May 8. That was back up 27.7% from the week prior but 1.6% below the same week last year. Egypt was the largest destination of 127,062 MT, with 85,001 MT headed to Indonesia and 65,165 MT to Mexico. Marketing year shipments are now 43.89 MMT (1.613 bbu), an increase of 11% from the same week last year.

May 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.66, up 22 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $10.20, up 19 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.71 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents,

Nov 25 Soybeans  closed at $10.57 1/2, up 27 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $9.94 1/2, up 27 cents,


On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.